Sometimes, a story comes along that reads less like news and more like the setup for a very dry joke. According to a report from NBC News, the Pentagon has spent at least $21 million flying migrants to Guantanamo Bay between January 20 and April 8 of this year. The twist? The base currently holds just 32 migrants. I’ve triple-checked that math—and, yes, the real strangeness is not in the calculation, but in the underlying logic.
The Multi-Million Dollar Shuttle
Examining the details assembled by NBC News, Operation Southern Guard began after former President Donald Trump announced that Guantanamo Bay would be enlisted for holding migrants. The military operation’s official start in January kicked off a series of 46 flights in less than three months, each with a reported average cost of $26,277 per flight hour. The bill to date? Roughly $21,087,300, according to Pentagon figures provided to Congress.
Here’s where the numbers drift toward the bizarre: at the time of reporting, just 32 migrants remain at Guantanamo, a minuscule portion of the 30,000 that Trump had pledged to send. Over the full course of this initiative, fewer than 500 migrants have entered the base, and even at its most crowded, no more than 200 have been held there at once. The outlet observes that many of these individuals are believed to have been flown back to the U.S.—and even this seems shrouded in some uncertainty, as officials haven’t provided a comprehensive accounting.
Stacking these numbers together, and using only the base figures reported by NBC News, the average cost per currently held migrant easily vaults above $650,000. Not that anyone set out for this particular milestone, but it’s hard not to wonder how this stacks up next to alternatives. Has anyone involved asked what the per-seat cost would be on a commercial carrier?
Political Stunt or Bureaucratic Mishap?
Reactions, at least in Washington, have landed as expected. Democrats, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren—a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee featured by NBC News—denounced the use of military resources for what she called “political stunts that do not make us safer.” She went further, describing it as an “abuse of power.” NBC notes that Pentagon officials have so far declined to respond to these criticisms.
Despite the eyebrow-raising cost and the logistical problems, the show appears set to go on. Defense officials, cited in the same report, revealed that the U.S. Transportation Command had recently ordered additional weekly flights to Guantanamo. Officially, this is to prepare for an increase in capacity, though given the current occupancy, it’s difficult to picture any imminent crush.
From a process standpoint, NBC News documents that administration officials themselves acknowledged the plan was both legally and logistically flawed, and that internal disagreements were hampering its execution. With all these complications in the air, the pressing ahead with more flights reads less as adaptation and more as institutional inertia on autopilot.
The Cost of Cargo, Not Counting the Baggage
Operation Southern Guard’s tab doesn’t stop at transporting detainees. As described in detail by NBC News, 31 additional military and contract flights between January 20 and March 25 ferried 715 passengers (not migrants), equipment, and some 1,016.9 tons of cargo to Guantanamo. These flights, operated or contracted with firms like United Airlines and Omni Air International, cost another $1.67 million combined. NBC’s accounting clarifies that none of these contracted flights carried detained migrants—plenty of seats, just very different passengers.
So, putting together all expenses and matching them to the human numbers, one wonders if there’s ever been a less efficient people-moving operation undertaken in peacetime.
Reflections From the Runway
The saga, as pieced together through NBC’s reporting, paints a portrait of big promises running face-first into the harsh wall of logistical reality. After two months, officials admitted the effort was hobbled by flawed planning and infighting, even as the flights—and their costs—kept taxiing forward.
It invites curiosity: What is the real mission here, if not the practical management of migration flows? Does the spectacle outweigh the value? If the result is $21 million spent in moving a group that now numbers barely three dozen, just how many future textbook case studies has this operation now inspired?
In the catalog of government oddities, this will likely stand out: a “taxi service” where the vehicles are military aircraft, the passengers are few, and the receipts read like a punchline searching for a setup. Years from now, will anyone be able to explain how so much money flew so few miles with so little to show for it—other than an object lesson in the cost of political pageantry?